The new variant of the strain of coronavirus discovered in the UK is likely to increase hospital stays and increase the death toll in 2021 as it is 56 percent more communicable. These are new research found by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The SARS-CoV-2 variant with the name VOC 202012/01, which emerged in the south-east of England in November 2020, “seems to be spreading rapidly in the direction of fixation,” says the new study. However, there is still no scientific evidence that COVID-19 is likely to become more serious for those infected with the new variant, as WHO has worked with health experts around the world to learn more about the new mutant strain.
“We have adapted a mathematical two-stretch model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to the observed hospital admissions for COVID-19, the occupancy of hospitals and intensive care beds, and deaths,” explained scientists in the newly published study.
It was also found that the hospitalization rate had increased in the NHS England in the South East, East England and London. Scientists found that the mutated genome was extremely transmissible than any known variant of SARS-CoV-2.
“The increase in portability is likely to lead to a sharp rise in incidence, as COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths are expected to reach higher levels in 2021 than in 2020, even if regional restrictions were put in place before December 19,” warned the researchers. The study suggested that a national lockdown, such as that introduced in England in November 2020, was effective in suppressing the transmission rate of the new variant in some parts, but it was “unlikely that the effective reproductive number Rt was reduced to less than.” 1 “.
There are several reasons to believe that the new UK is #SARS-CoV-2 Variation is important as it can be more contagious than other variants, but there are also some uncertainties. So much misinformation is being spread that this thread is pulling together key data. 🧵
– Giant Cevik (@mugecevik) December 21, 2020
1- genome data
In the UK, COG-UK is sequencing SARS-CoV-2 samples from ~ 10% of positive cases. This is a tremendous effort, and it helps scientists identify mutations and track them over time. Here are some variants that are being tracked in the UK. 1 / https://t.co/d6FVG1RjNj pic.twitter.com/cUlCIKLglD– Giant Cevik (@mugecevik) December 21, 2020
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17 mutations found
Previously, the UK had announced at a press conference that a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, known as the Variant of Concern 202012/01 (henceforth VOC 202012/01), was widespread and rapidly spreading in several parts of England, London and South had spread east. In addition, the UK also identified a second “more transmissible” variant of COVID-19 related to South Africa, which, despite the tiering system in place, was spreading at a dangerous rate, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced. At least two cases in London and north-west England that have been positively diagnosed with the second new variant of the coronavirus have been quarantined. Both patients had traveled from South Africa in the past few weeks. Scientists have found 17 mutations in the first variant of the rapidly evolving genome.
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