President Donald Trump, you got it wrong

President Trump, you got it wrong

The largest fluctuations in votes against Trump were in the traditionally republican states (acts)

Simple voting data contradicts Donald Trump’s wild assertion that the Democrats selectively manipulated the votes in certain key states and turned a huge (“huge”) loss into a false victory.

US election analysts rarely use the “butler swing”. Maybe it’s too British? However, when analyzing the 2020 US elections, the butler swing shows interesting voting patterns. And reveals the Trump-Wild hypothesis. Look at these two simple data fields.

First, let’s examine Trump’s claim that the Democrats focused on swing states to generate a large number of bogus votes. The data shows that this is simply not true.

The biggest fluctuations in votes against Trump were not in the swing states, but in the traditionally republican states. In fact, the swing against Trump in Republican states is almost twice as high, at -2%, than the swing against Trump, at -1.1% in the swing states. And perhaps even more revealing: the states in which the democrats would hypothetically best have been able to manipulate votes would have been the traditionally democratic states, in which they can better control the levers of power. Instead, the democratic states had the least momentum, just -0.2% against Trump.

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Second, Butler’s “unified swing” theory also refutes Trump’s view that sham votes have led to a large surge in Democratic votes in some states, and therefore the Democrats defrauded and won those key states (these are the states where Trump is legal Team went to court to overturn voters’ decision).

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In fact, the opposite is true: those 2020 elections saw a remarkable “uniform turnaround” in the American states – the state vote data does not contain any “bumps” or rigged anomalies.

The overall swing against Trump since 2016 has been negative 0.9% – and a sure sign of an even swing as 45 of the 51 states had negative swing against Trump. Only 6 states had small swings in Trump’s favor.

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The voting patterns in the swing states were not anomalies at all – on the contrary, only one swing state stood out against the nationwide uniform swing against Trump (Florida had a small 1% swing against Trump) – all other swing states followed the uniform all-America pattern with swings away from Trump.

Note: What is a swing in votes? A swing is simply the change in a party’s percentage of votes from one election to the next. When there are only two parties, the positive momentum towards one party is by definition equal to the negative momentum towards the other party. The butler swing in a two-party system is half the change in profit margin. For example, a swing of -2% means that a party’s votes have dropped 2% from one election to the next. Butler’s “unitary swing” theory states that a downturn from one party tends to be negative in all / most regions of the country.

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